MMA Math predictions for this weekend's upcoming fights
A while back I posted about a model I was building to calculate fighter rating based only on their results (i.e no hype). This was largely motivated by how utter crap the UFC rankings are. In the past few months I've made some big improvements on the model, ported it from Excel to a suitable programming language and added many more promotions and fighters (originally it was limited just to the UFC). Now I'm considering about 50k fights from the most important promotions and around 30k fighters. You can dig up the old post for a more in-depth explanation of the methodology, but basically this is unlike an ELO model that's just forward looking (each fight only affects your rating from that point forward), which is fine for something like chess where players play hundreds of matches per year, but completely unsuitable for MMA IMO. This model looks forward and backwards so a fight today affects your past rating and the rating of your past opponents and their opponents and so on. And this is how we view fighters in real life too, since their entire career consists of so few matches. For example after Ronda's second loss, no one believes she was a one in a lifetime athlete anymore. Just that she was a good fighter with some obvious weaknesses, that was ahead of the curve back then. Which is exactly the same assessment the model makes. Ok, enough about that. Let's get to this weekend's event. I'm posting predictions for both Bellator 193 and UFC on Fox 27. In the table you'll see the ELO rating of both fighters (it's not a real ELO rating, but I've converted it to that scale for convenience and because it's something I'm familiar with). For reference the average fighter is rated 2,000 and every 400 point difference the chance the higher rated fighter wins is about 90%. Also, this ratings are not comparable between weight classes for a P4P ranking. Fighters of the same relative skill, but from higher weight classes are rated higher (because they're more likely to win due to their size). This occurs because fighter from different weight classes are linked through fighters that move up and down in weight and they seem to do better at the lower weight classes. This of course has no effect (and it's in fact beneficial for our predictions). Here's the table:
Mara Romero Borella
Ji Yeon Kim
The number of fights for each fighter reflects the number of fights they have in my database. Usually the ones missing are from early in their career from regional organizations not on my database. Running the model is already very computationally intensive for only 30k fighters, I'm not looking to add too many more. You can also see their inactivity in days. If they've been out too long their rating may no longer be accurate, so keep that in mind. Then we have the odds each fighter would win as predicted by the model. I've also added the odds and implied probability each fighter would win from 5dimes. Basically if the implied probability a fighter would win in the model is higher than the implied probability from the oddmakers, then if the model is right there would be a betting edge. Notice how the sum is always higher than 100%, that's the house margin. This is provided for entertainment purposes only Don't come crying to me if you lose your house. We can see that the predictions of the model line up pretty well with the Vegas odds for the most part. There a few notable exceptions. In Larkin vs González, Larkin is a huge favorite, but according to the model González has a 45% chance to win. So there could be some value in a small bet there. Kendall Grove has a small edge to win 68% vs 61%. I'll be betting on that. There's a small edge in Jordan Rinaldi as well, but it's a very low chance he'll win, so I think I'll pass. Godofredo Pepey has a 43% chance to win according to the model, but only 18% according to Vegas. There seems to be some value there, maybe a small bet. I think is funny that we both agree that Pichel vs Silva is the only pick'em fight on the bunch. Usually ELO differences below 15 points are irrelevant, so I predict it as a 50/50 fight. I do have ratings for every fighter, but like I said they're not comparable between weight classes. I'm working on a fix, but for that I need to know the weight class of all 30k fighters and scraping them is taking a while. I'll probably have it next week. Feel free to ask any questions and again This is for entertainment purposes only Please don't go betting money you can't afford to lose. Edit: I forgot to mention that it takes around 4 or 5 fights to start getting accurate rating estimates, so I don't predict fights where either fighter is below that threshold. It's far lower than the number chess sites need to give you a non provisional ELO (around 20), because this is both forward and backwards looking.
UFC Fight Night: Denver (Korean Zombie v Rodriguez) Fight Predictions
Alright, episode 2 of this 8 week marathon. I hope everyone enjoyed 230, i bloody well did! I hope everyone is doing fine and enjoys this read. Please leave any feedback, or feel free to start a discussion below. I may not reply instantly since its a semi-busy week for me, but regardless, i'm always looking forward to a nice chat :) Quick Disclaimer. I know my predictions have been wrong, alot, recently, and i cannot stress enough when i say this, do NOT use this predictions for betting, or, well, if you do, do it at your own risk, MMA is the toughest sport to predict in my opinion, ive watched thousands of fights and still i can't properly predict these fights, i doubt anyone can, there are so many variables in this sport, I do this to bring content and try to hype up the fighters that no one really cares about, this is my passion and i wish to one day turn it into a career. Thank you all for the support. (c) = Champ (D) = Debut NS = No Streak FLS = Fight Lose Streak FWS = Fight Win Streak (#x) = Rank in Division Lets begin. Prelims Flyweight Mark de la Rosa (10-1-0, NS) v Joby Sanchez (11-3-0, NS) - De La Rosa is a Black Belt in BJJ, and a fairly talented, exciting fighter to watch, he's got somewhat smooth striking although it's definitely not his main weapon. As you can probably guess his main weapon is his ground game, which is fairly quick and effective. He also has a fair bit of cardio, and looks difficult to tire out, but then again, he's only been in the UFC for 2 fights, both didn't go the distance so maybe i'm wrong in regards to the whole cardio thing, but this is Flyweight so cardio probably isnt a big problem for these fighters. Sanchez is a fairly well rounded fighter, who kinda has a grindy, wrestling style, added on with some slick striking, he's only fought once in the UFC, and kinda struggled against experienced grapplers. His main problem i feel is that his offensive wrestling is very offensive, but once someone has him in a tough spot, he gets drained a little quickly and then struggles on the ground. On his feet however it's perhaps a different story, he uses feints, changes target (body, head, leg kicks, etc) and slowly opens up his opponent for some aggressive, grindy wrestling, using his weapon properly. Sanchez is also a late replacement fighter, coming in on one week notice. This is a tough fight to predict since both fighters are somewhat similar in skillset, i can see De La Rosa getting the better end of this fight, as his ground game is more slick and intelligent. De La Rosa via Sub Flyweight Joseph Morales (9-1-0, NS) v Eric Shelton (11-5-0, NS) - This looks to be another grappling style match-up. Morales is a well rounded, experience grappler who is fairly fresh on the UFC roster, he easily dismantled Roberto Sanchez in his debut but got fed to the wolves when he fought an incredibly tough Deiveson Figueiredo. His grappling is on point though, as he is fairly quick on the ground. He also has a fairly strong right hand, when it lands, but otherwise his grappling and his position taking skills are quite good. Shelton on the other hand is struggling pretty bad, at the moment i kinda feel like he's just another step to get easy ranks, since he always gets dismantled, but that shouldnt sway you from the fact that he's a very quick grappler, he doesn't slow down and is fairly relentless with his advances. But ultimately i just don't feel him anymore, if he loses this fight (and i feel like he would) he might get kicked off the roster before every other flyweight does (RIP Flyweight division). Morales via Sub Lightweight Davi Ramos (8-2-0, 2 FWS) v John Gunther (5-0-0, 5 FWS) - This seems like an unfair fight for Gunther. Ramos is an animal on the ground, he's got a black belt in BJJ and definitely performs like one. He only lost in his debut because he was a replacement fighter, and he was heavier (170lb instead of 155). But when he prepares for fights, like when he fought against Gruetzemacher and Hein, he dominates on the ground, he's an absolute beast, and that already spells danger for Gunther. Gunther is someone that kinda got my interest in TUF 27, but the way he fought, i just didn't really like, he looks nervous and kinda sporadic with his movements, and when you do that against a methodical machine in Ramos, you get hurt, badly. Maybe he got fed to the wolves in this fight, maybe he didn't, i haven't seen his camp, or any background info since he won in the TUF 27 Finale, but regardless, i am interested on how he manages this fight, he could easily win but he could easily lose also, this sports tricky. Ramos via Sub Lightweight Devonte Smith (D) (8-1-0, 4 FWS) v Julian Erosa (D) (22-5-0, 3 FWS) - This is gonna be a monster of a fight. Smith is a fucking animal let loose, free from the bindings of holding the fuck back, he unleashes hell with his striking, he's an exceptionally powerful featherweight and i can feel a hype train building behind him if he KO's Erosa in this fight. This is his debut and he might feel some pressure behind him, but honestly i doubt it since he performed incredibly well in DWTNCS. Erosa is a very well rounded striker who is coming in the UFC with quite a good resume. 27 total fights in pro MMA, no idea how much other fights in other disciplines, but he's coming in here with a crapload of experience and i can't wait to see what kind of pressure he gives to Smith. I personally can't wait for this fight, since its a double debut and both fighters are extremely promising on the feet. It could be explosive. Smith via KO Lightweight Beneil Dariush (14-4-1, NS) v Thiago Moises (D) (11-2-0, 2 FWS) - Dariush is an extremely well rounded fighter, don't let his recent losses fool you, he's faced monsters in this losses, and he's even destroyed monsters. James Vick, Michael Johnson, Jim Miller, the list basically goes on and on, Dariush is a very experienced destroyer. He is an excellent striker, and has power. I hope this fight turns out to be in his favour, because i love watching him fight, win, lose, or in one rare case, draw, he's an excellent fighter and i honestly hope he can defeat Moises. His grappling and striking work hand in hand, he has a Black Belt in Muay Thai and a Black Belt in BJJ, a horrific combination. Moises is an explosive motherfucker, he's incredible to watch, he's just so full of energy he could power a fucking substation. Don't blink on this guy, he's debuting, yeah, but goddamn he's probably the next Zabit. Fuck it, Moises via KO Featherweight Chas Skelly (17-3-0, NS) v Bobby Moffett (D) (13-3-0, 3 FWS) - Skelly is a fairly tough wrestler who explodes with his takedown attempts. He also dishes out and nasty ground and pound every now and then, but most of the time he grinds down his opponents until they open up for a submission. His striking on the feet are nothing really special, its average at best, however they are effective if we're adding the fact that he uses the striking to also open his opponent up for a fairly easy explosive takedown/slam. Skelly is coming back from a one year absence, so i'm interested to see how much he has improved in that one year, he was also injured in that one year, although i'm not too sure what injury he might have had, i know he had arm surgery before his fight with Knight, so maybe he was still recuperating, either way, more power to him, i hope he does well. Moffett is a debuting grappler coming out of the powerful MMA Lab team, Moffett is a submission specialist, he lives, eats, breaths, and sleeps on the ground, and i mean that in a good way! he's exceptional on the ground, a master perhaps, i don't know if he has a black belt or something on the ground, i assume he does? either way, if things get taken to the ground, i feel like Moffett would take advantage of that. Moffett via Sub Women's Strawweight Ashley Yoder (5-4-0, 3 FLS) v Amanda Cooper (4-4-0, NS) - This might be the "skip" fight for this event, because neither of these women bring much to the table other than the standard striking and grappling. Yoder is a fairly well rounded grappler, who, since joining the UFC, has faced mediocre fighters and lost to them all, I suppose the only fully fledged fightespecialist was Mackenzie Dern, which was a defeat via Split Decision. That was a somewhat okay fight to watch and i could see Yoders improvements, but otherwise she seems like a filler fighter, if there was such a thing. Cooper Is a fairly good striker, that's what she's most comfortable doing, since all of her losses have been submissions, that only shows me that she sucks being defensive on the ground, and i think in this case, you'll need to learn to be better on the ground when you're coming up against Yoder who is a grinder. Cooper via UD Main Card Lightweight Michael Trizano (8-0-0, 8 FWS) v Luis Pena (5-0-0, 5 FWS) - Ooft, this brings back memories from TUF 27. Trizano is a monster of a fighter, and was a highlight for me, during TUF 27. Trizano is a very well rounded fighter who has faced tough strikers, and super tough grapplers, and defeated them all expertly. He's still got a long way to go and since now he's entering the UFC, he gonna face tougher competition, and that first step comes to his fight with Pena, the crowd favourite (Or the reddit favourite), either way, this fights gonna be amazing, and a great start to the main card. Pena is such a smooth fighter, he does everything with such flow and power. It was kinda a shame for him to be injured early on in the season because i would have loved to see him fight once more, but i guess this fight against Trizano is the only thing i want now. This is a true test for Pena, and for the reddit MMA viewers. Trizano via UD (Sorry bois) Women's Strawweight Maycee Barber (D) (5-0-0, 5 FWS) v Hannah Cifers (D) (8-2-0, 5 FWS) - So, whilst this is indeed a double debut, i am incredibly hyped up for Cifers, she's an absolute monster, and could be the next big thing in the strawweight division. Her Muay Thai skills are absolutely amazing. Barber is a super tough striker who methodically picks her shots and doesn't go in all guns blazing, shes also very good on the ground, so she's pretty much well rounded, her performance in DWTNCS was excellent and makes this match up against Cifers all that much more exciting to watch. Cifers is an excellent striker, almost Shevchenko-esque with her striking, but that's my opinion. I haven't seen too many of her fights, only the Titan FC ones, but goddamn she's impressive, and i can't wait to see her fight Cifers via KO Women's Bantamweight Raquel Pennington (#4) (9-7-0, NS) v Germaine de Randamie (#5) (7-3-0, 3 FWS) - Well, if Pennington is gonna face a tough opponent, it might as well be de Randamie... Pennington has been through wars, she defeated Tate, Correia, Andrade.. the list kinda goes on and on, then stops after a while... Anyway, Pennington is a fairly well rounded fighter who is unfortunately going to struggle against this fight against de Randamie (is it "de Randamie" or just "Randamie"?). Anyway, after a devastating loss against Nunes, which went longer than it should because her coach was a... idk, a strange one to listen to i suppose. She's a warrior who kept on fighting. I for one don't really like Pennington that much, mostly due to the fact that she's gonna face tough opponents and she's being overrun with fighters of higher skill. de Randamie is one tough motherfucker, and despite her controversial win over Holm, she is an incredibly powerful striker, she has a kickboxing record of 37-0, which is honestly fairly impressive, and something not many people notice... she's only known for not defending the belt, and hitting after the bell rang. but regardless of those two incidents, you can't deny that she's an impressive striker and will be dangerous for Pennington. de Randamie via KO Co-Main Welterweight Donald Cerrone (#12) (33-11-0, NS) v Mike Perry (12-3-0, NS) - This is going to be incredibly biased, because i've always been a fan of Cerrone. Cerrone is the most wild fighter in the UFC in my opinion, he doesn't study his opponents, he doesnt really train for advantages, he just goes through his usual training regiment, and when the time comes, he fucking throws the fuck down. He loves to fight and we all love to watch him fight, and i'm sure after he told his cave diving horror story, we all wanted to watch him fight so much more. I hope he never quits. Perry is a super tough striker, he's explosive and he's moving up a weight class, so he's gonna be hitting much more harder, and it'll be a true test of his cardio. This worries me because Cerrone never really studies for his fights, and since Perry is such a crisp striker, that could spell danger for Cerrone. This is going to be my own personal main event. Anything with Cerrone in the name, is my main event. Don't hate, but Cerrone via KO Main Event Featherweight Chan Sung Jung (#10) (14-4-0, NS) v Yair Rodriguez (#15) (11-2-0, NS) - Fuck yes, the Korean Zombie v Spinny Boi is by far the most exciting fight of this card. Jung is a perhaps the most talented asian fighter on the UFC roster, and that's saying something amongst talented strikers. He's very, very well rounded, he has great, crisp, accurate, powerful striking, as well as fast movements and position changes on the ground, he can sink in a choke as easily as he can knock you out. I will pay full attention to this fight, as this match up is incredible. Rodriguez is a god, a sexy, mexican god. He's the original Zabit (and if you know me, i hype Zabit up as if Zabit is some immortal alien that learnt to fight 300 universes ago). His striking is absolutely amazing, its almost as if he's in a movie and every technique is scripted to land perfectly. This is the fight we all should be awake and eager to watch, aint no sleeping on this main event, hell naw. I'm a huge fan of Spinny boi, he's exciting to watch and every fight is basically a fight of the night, or a performance of the nice. He's incredible and i honestly think he has this. Rodriguez via KO Well, that was a fun card to write about, I wonder if those flyweight fights are the last ones before every future flyweight fighter has to move up to Bantamweight. Either way... Who do you think is gonna win in the main event? heck, the co-main event even? Do you think de Randamie will come back strong, this time without controversy? Any exciting prospects that you're eager to watch? theres a fair few DWTNCS contract winners in there! Much love to all, and enjoy your week and then the event :)
*Note: Facebook / Youtube prelims start time may be pushed ahead to 6:15 ET. I put the earlier start time to be safe. MAIN EVENT Cain Velasquez (HW Champion) vs. Junior “Cigano” Dos Santos (Challenger) "Tale of the Tape" Fighter stats via UFC event page The best two heavyweights in the world fight for the third time in what promoter Dana White hypes as “the greatest trilogy in UFC history”. The two first met in the UFC’s debut FOX event in November of 2011, where JDS handed Cain his first loss - winning by KO at just 1:04 of the first round with a looping overhand right punch to take the HW championship belt. In December of 2012 the two squared off in The Octagon for round two, where this time Velasquez won a dominant unanimous decision over JDS - controlling most of the fight for the full 5 rounds. Cain is best known for his dominant wrestling and unrelenting cardio and pace, while Junior is a lover of boxing and has more knockdowns than any fighter in the UFC HW division. Injury reports have been a big side-angle in discussing and promoting the trilogy, with both fighters having leg injuries going into the first fight and JDS coming out of the second fight (loss) with blood tests indicating that he may have suffered ill-effects from over training. Additionally, Junior cited "personal problems" after the loss in the second fight, due to relationship problems that lead to a divorce from his wife of 10 years. In each case, these problems were not made public until after the event had concluded. The same applies in this third meeting, where there have been no substantial reports of publicly disclosed injuries, with the notable exception of Dos Santos having suffered a facial cut above his eye 3 weeks ago that has since been stitched and the stitches removed; yet it is likely to be fresh scar tissue. After the second fight, JDS humorously stated that Cain hits like a girl because he was unable to finish the fight despite the numerous blows that landed clean. This made for hot headlines, and even featured prominently in the UFC 166 "Primetime" television series, but should not be taken too seriously as a sign of animosity. Cain responded by mostly shrugging off the comments, while his head coach was a bit more forthright in his response - “if [Cain] hits like a girl, that girl dropped him". Leading up to this rubber match, Cain has vowed to put an end to the fighters’ competitive rivalry by winning this 3rd matchup, while Junior plans to take the victory this time and either way expects that they will likely meet again at some point given that they are two of the best in the world. Velasquez won a dominant first-round TKO victory over Antonio “Big Foot” Silva in his last fight and title defense, and Junior is coming off of a late-round headkick KO victory over notable kickboxing veteran Mark Hunt. Media:
CO-MAIN EVENT Heavyweights - Daniel Cormier vs. Roy “Big Country” Nelson Cormier enters the fight undefeated in MMA as a long-time top-prospect and likely future title contender if all goes well. As a previous USA Olympian wrestler, he had health issues relating to weight cutting, and has chosen to fight his professional career as a smaller-framed heavyweight to avoid a weight cut. However, as a training partner and close friend of current HW champion Cain Velasquez, Cormier has stated that the two teammates will never fight, and as long as Cain is the champion this means that Daniel will never accept a shot at UFC gold in the HW division. This has lead to his plans to drop to the light heavyweight division over time in a healthy manner through proper dieting, which he plans to do after this bout with Roy Nelson, win or lose, and regardless of whether he is offered an immediate LHW title shot. Cormier is one of the best wrestlers in MMA and is coming off a lackluster grappling victory over Frank Mir, but has suggested that he plans to test the iron-chin of Nelson which he wonders aloud whether it has reached its “expiration date”. Nelson is no stranger to carrying around excess weight, and is known for his large belly and “everyman appearance” which is complemented by his unruly hair and beard. “Big Country” has also voiced interest in possibly dropping to the LHW division sometime soon, spurred on when a photo made headlines of him appearing to be in the best shape the public has seen in quite some time. Although, these rumblings are not a new phenomenon and have been suggested by the fans and Dana White for some time, as well as hinted at by Roy himself to no avail. Roy’s beard also made headlines in the prefight run-up when Cormier petitioned the Texas athletic commission to force him to trim it. The commission denied the request, stating there were no grounds to do so (though many other commissions may have had a different ruling), and Cormier played it off in the media afterwards as just a bit of mental warfare. Roy is known as one of the heaviest hitters in the division; often loading up on haymakers in pursuit of a KO victory. This led to some trouble in his last fight, where Stipe Miocic won an underdog decision by out maneuvering Nelson who suffered cardio problems in the entirely stand-up bout. However, his grappling and ground game are strengths as well when he has the opportunity to use them. Nelson candidly said this week that he has had the “crappiest” fight camp of his career, which he attributes to injured coaches and training partners. Media:
r/mma UFC 168 Ultimate Viewer's Guide – How to watch, Fight Previews, Media, Odds and more
I heard you like rematches. Well then you’re in for a treat. Saturday brings us UFC 168, headlined by one of the biggest rematches in UFC history at an event that promoter Dana White hypes as the UFC’s biggest ever. Chris Weidman and Anderson Silva will square off in an immediate rematch to determine if Weidman’s first victory was a one-time occurrence or if he really is the better fighter. The co-main features another championship rematch between the face of women’s MMA, Ronda Rousey, and her less-than-best-friend Miesha Tate. Here you will find a basic primer for new and casual fans, as well as collection of links and useful information for the fans of any degree. Check the comment section to find the post continuation for "How to Watch" information, etc. Check out the end of the year mmatournament for a chance to win some original MMA artwork. Event Date: Saturday, Dec 28, 2013 Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
All odds taken from Bovada at time of post. Visit the link to view fractional (UK) and decimal (AU) odds.
Weightclass(lbs): Fighter (US odds) vs.Fighter (US odds) . PPV Main Card (10:00 pm ET / 7:00 pm PT) - See “How to Watch” for your local time.
Middleweight Championship (185): Chris Weidman (+140) vs.Anderson Silva (-170)
Chris Weidman (Champion) vs. Anderson “The Spider” Silva (Challenger) "Tale of the Tape" Fighter stats Recently crowned middleweight champion Chris Weidman defends his belt against its former owner and former number 1 pound-for-pound fighter Anderson Silva. The two first met at UFC 162 in July of this year, where Weidman handed Silva his first loss since 2006 and first ever loss by knockout. The second round knockout over one of the greatest fighters of all time shocked the MMA world. Few predicted such a dramatic finish despite Weidman entering the fight with the narrowest betting odds for one of Silva’s opponents in several years, and with many of his fellow fighters favoring him for the upset victory. The nature of the Silva’s loss sparked a barrage of allegations from fans and media that ranged from questioning his motivation to accusing him of intentionally throwing the fight. The showmanship and provocation inside the cage that has become a staple of Silva’s fights was believed by many fans to be his downfall. Perhaps the single most discussed subject leading into the rematch is whether Silva will once again taunt Weidman in an effort to draw him into his own game, play to the audience, or both. Silva remains enigmatic as always in his interviews, maintaining that the loss had nothing to do with his in-cage antics and claiming he doesn’t plan any significant changes in the rematch. He attributes the loss to “basic mistakes” and enters the rematch with what appears to be a reignited motivation to win that may have been waning in recent times. Weidman stated prior to the first fight that he was willing and expecting to have an immediate rematch with Silva if or when he beat him at UFC 162. At the post-fight press conference he never wavered from that willingness, and one week later Silva had signed on to the rematch himself. Leading up to the first fight, Weidman was coming off of an extended layoff due to shoulder surgery, and also experienced the loss of his home to Hurricane Sandy. He admits that those issues had an effect on his performance, and expects to step into the cage as an even stronger competitor this weekend. Dana White has stated that Vitor Belfort is next in line for a title shot against the winner, barring the possibility of something “crazy” happening. If Weidman wins, that will undoubtedly be the next fight. Silva on the other hand has been talking about his desire to fight famed boxer Roy Jones Jr. in a boxing match long before his first fight with Weidman at UFC 162, and hoped to do so with a win that night. The loss brought discussion of those plans to a temporary halt, but Silva maintains his interest in that boxing match. White has said he is open to discussing the proposed fight, but any future plans are limited to that statement. Either way that potential matchup may take a backseat to Silva fighting Vitor. Edit: Silva also mentions in his pre-fight interview linked below (which came out after writing this post) that retirement is an option after the fight, but he is known for just messing with the media and being obtuse. There could be truth to it, or it could mean nothing. Referee: Veteran ref Herb Dean draws main event duty. The announcement of the assignment was almost unanimously well received by mma. Dean is considered one of the top refs in MMA. He also was the third man in the cage when Weidman and Silva first fought at UFC 162. Judges: Chris Lee, Patricia Morse-Jarman, and Junichiro Kamijo will judge the main event. All three judges are in the top 15 for most fights judged, according to MMADecisions.com
“Rowdy” Ronda Rousey (Champion) vs. Miesha “Cupcake” Tate (Challenger) “Tale of the Tape” The co-main event features another rematch, with another title on the line. Similar to the Weidman vs. Silva matchup, the roles are reversed for the competitors here as well. However, the fight timeline and circumstances of this meeting are quite different. In March, 2012, Rousey and Tate met for the first time in the now defunct Strikeforce promotion. Rousey successfully submitted Tate by armbar in the first round to take the belt and dislocated Tate’s elbow in the process. At the time it was Rousey’s 5th victory of her MMA career, and 5th first-round armbar submission. Since then she has continued this trend two more times before facing off against Tate again. The rivalry between the two women dates back to before their first fight. It didn’t look like they would cross paths again so soon after Tate lost a number 1 contender fight against Cat Zingano to determine Rousey’s second title defense as the UFC’s bantamweight champion. Zingano and Rousey were selected to coach opposite each other on the UFC’s The Ultimate Fighter reality show with plans to fight afterward, however, a knee injury forced Zingano out of the fight and coaching job. This paved the way for Tate as a replacement, given the ease of promoting the rematch between the rivals and the reality television appeal of the matchup. Tate admits that she went into the first fight too emotionally charged due to her dislike of Ronda, which she believes hindered her performance. Ronda says she is ready to finish Tate again and close the door on their rivalry, which is more personal than competitive in nature. She is confident that she has made significant improvements since they first fought, at which point she had done very little full-contact MMA sparring. Media:
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Prediction: Zach Makovsky by Unanimous Decision Erik Koch (13-3) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (17-7) Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC Moving up to lightweight after back-to-back losses to elite competition at featherweight, Koch is in a must-win situation here. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old Roufusport fighter looks like a prime candidate to get upset. Here’s the thing: Koch was out-muscled and out-grappled in his last two outings at 145, and now he’s moving up to face bigger, stronger fighters in the lightweight ranks. While Oliveira has struggled to a 1-3 record during his second stint in the UFC and just a 2-5 mark in the Octagon overall, he has the ability to close the distance on Koch, make him carry his weight, and grind out the undersized new arrival. Prediction: Rafaello Oliveira by Unanimous Decision Ernest Chavez (6-0) vs. Yosdenis Cedeno (9-2) Both guys are stepping into this fight on short notice, getting the call to the UFC after the rash of injuries washed over this card. Cedeno gets the edge simply based on experience and strength of competition—he’s got nearly twice as many fights as Chavez, his only two losses came against solid competition, and he comes from an underrated gym, MMA Masters in Miami. This one really could go either way because who knows how these two handle the Octagon jitters, but from a “what they’ve done to this point” standpoint, Cedeno should get it done. Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for the upcoming UFC 170: "Rousey vs. McMann" mixed martial arts (MMA) event that is set to hit Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday night (Feb. 22, 2014), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more. Tweet (14) Share Share 40 Comments Two Olympic medals, unbeaten mixed martial arts (MMA) records and an Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) belt on the line. Judo star and women's Bantamweight champion, Ronda Rousey, will look to add another arm to her collection when she collides with freestyle wrestling standout, Sara McMann, in the main event of UFC 170, which emanates from Mandalay Bat Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday evening (Feb. 22, 2014). The pay-per-view (PPV) card will also feature the Light Heavyweight debut of Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix tournament winner, Daniel Cormier, as he faces the undefeated Patrick Cummins. In addition, Rory MacDonald and Demian Maia will try to bounce back from split-decision losses and cement their spots in the Welterweight elite. It's not the card it used to be, but what better way to drown your sorrows of what might have been than by dabbing away your tears with fresh greenbacks? Let's see how much we can get you. Follow me for the latest UFC 170: "Rousey vs. McMann" odds, as well as a full breakdown of potential best bets to consider this weekend in "Sin City:" UFC 170 Odds For The Under Card: Alexis Davis (-150) vs. Jessica Eye (+130) Raphael Assuncao (-195) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+155) Aljamain Sterling (-260) vs. Cody Gibson (+180) Zach Makovsky (-180) vs. Josh Sampo (+140) Erik Koch (-420) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (+300) Yosdenis Cedeno (-300) vs. Ernest Chavez (+220) Thoughts: Still looking to play favorites this week ... and I’m liking the odds on Davis and Makovsky. Eye is a solid fighter, but she’s also fighting 10 pounds north of her customary weight and doesn’t really have an area in which she can overwhelm Davis. Meanwhile, Davis looks to be every bit the striker Eye is and also possesses some devastating grappling chops to go along with that. Eye’s recent debacle with the Texas commission can’t be good for her focus, either; therefore, a bit on "Ally-Gator" makes sense. I’m really having a hard time seeing how Makovsky doesn’t run through Sampo. That's because he put on an absolute wrestling clinic against Scott Jorgensen, who is not only larger than Makovsky, but is generally considered a grappling beast. He also looked rather devastating on the feet, giving him the advantage wherever the fight goes. Sampo’s skill set, while impressive, seems to just slightly trail Makovsky’s in most areas. I suggest going big on "Fun Size." See what I did there? UFC 170 Odds For The Main Card: Ronda Rousey (-440) vs. Sara McMann (+350) Daniel Cormier (-1200) vs. Patrick Cummins (+775) Rory MacDonald (-280) vs. Demian Maia (+240) Mike Pyle (-190) vs. T.J. Waldburger (+165) Stephen Thompson (-135) vs. Robert Whittaker (+115) Thoughts: I’m pretty sure Rousey and Cormier are going to obliterate their competition and MacDonald is content to use his jab to plink away at Maia for 15 minutes, so that leaves the 170-pound contenders. Thompson’s weak performance against Nah-Shon Burrell followed by that shellacking of Chris Clements have me thinking he’s a bit too inconsistent to play, so let’s go with Pyle. Waldburger is one of my favorite welterweights because his grappling is an absolute joy to behold. Unfortunately, he’s burdened with the worst chin in the division. Six of his eight losses are by (technical) knockout. Even though Pyle got murked in a hurry by Matt Brown, his previous four opponents all had one thing in common: When they entered the clinch, they got hurt. Indeed, Ricardo Funch and James Head went down to knees, while Josh Neer was short-circuited by a point-blank right hand. While Rick Story went the distance, he got legitimately hurt by a big knee in the process. Even Thiago Alves wasn’t able to rock him with that strike. In other words, as soon as they tie up, Waldburger is in danger. Considering he’s going to be pushing for a takedown, that shouldn’t take long. Bet on "Quicksand." UFC 170 Best Bets:
Parlay -- Zach Makovsky and Alexis Davis: Bet $50 to make $80.50 Parlay -- Zach Makovsky and Mike Pyle: Bet $60 to make $83.40
Three Olympians and a plethora of Welterweight contenders ... there are worse ways to spend a Saturday night. Headlined by women's bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey and fellow Olympian Sara McMann, UFC 170 is set to go down this weekend. Rousey has successfully defended her UFC title in back-to-back bouts, but McMann could be her toughest test stylistically. The former freestyle wrestling silver medalist could be the first fighter who is capable of forcing Rousey to stand. Additionally, Daniel Cormier will make his light heavyweight debut on Saturday. "DC" was originally scheduled to meet Rashad Evans in the co-main event, but he'll now meet replacement opponent and UFC newcomer Patrick Cummins in what looks to be a warm-up. Furthermore, welterweight contenders Rory MacDonald and Demian Maia will battle to get back into the win column. Despite their recent losses, both fighters are very much in the hunt for a shot at the currently vacant 170-pound championship. The UFC 170 weigh-ins will be held on Friday at 7 p.m. ET. When the weigh-ins begin, live streaming video will be available on the video player above. Below is the entire fight card for UFC 170, which will be hosted by Las Vegas on Saturday. Despite Rashad Evans' last-minute injury causing a bit of frenzy, fans are still left with some verbal warfare in the co-main event, along with plenty of intrigue in the evening's main event. Will Sara McMann's wrestling pedigree result in the first genuine impediment to Ronda Rousey's unstoppable judo? Or will "Rowdy" hold onto her women's bantamweight championship with the same ease and supreme control she's demonstrated in her UFC stint thus far? It's Olympian vs. Olympian—with nuance and variance as to how the two women approach the grappling game. If you listen to the oddsmakers, the co-main event tilt between wrestling extraordinaire Daniel Cormier and Patrick Cummins should be nothing more than a squash match. Look at it this way: If Cormier has his way, we'll be in for an entertaining beating, yet if he doesn't, Cummins might deliver a historic upset. Whatever the end result, it'll likely be worth watching.
Tonight's UFC main card is packed and that's where our MMA crew is finding some value bets. Among the fights they are betting on Saturday: Welterweights Belal Muhammad (-130 favorite) Lyman Good (+105 underdog) and the Over/Under (2.5 rounds) between Josh Emmett and Shane Burgos. See their picks and analysis on those matchups and more below. UFC Fight Island 5 Odds, Under Dogs And Best Bets! Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC Fight Island 5, which is once again set to hit "Fight Island" in Abu Dhabi, United Arab ... This is a good matchup going down this weekend on October 10th between two UFC newcomers who are yet to lose inside the Octagon. Omar Morales is 2-0 in the UFC after a right-hand finish against Harvey Park on Dana White’s Contender Series.; GLORY Kickboxing veteran Giga Chikadze is 3-0 with the organization since making his debut just over a year ago. UFC 155 Odds and Betting Predictions by Trevor Whenham - 12/27/2012 If it seems like forever since we last had a major UFC event, that’s because it has been. Mixed Martial Arts has been the fastest growing sport the world has seen over the past decade, and UFC is the best organization within the sport. We regularly post UFC betting tips and predictions on this very page! Plus, betting previews on UFC fights, best odds and free bets.
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